NLLAnalysis
Written By Paul Tutka
On December 1, no one would have predicted an Albany FireWolves and Buffalo Bandits NLL Finals. We certainly didn’t.
The FireWolves were still in the early days of their almost top-to-bottom roster rebuild, and the Bandits were bruised up badly in their own end with a repeat looking unlikely.
Over the next five months, those storylines changed, significantly.
Who’ll win the NLL Cup?
The Lax Mag reviews what each team will need to do in order to take this year’s title, but also the reasons why they won’t.
— The Lax Mag (@TheLaxMag) May 6, 2024After ✌️ semifinal sweeps by the lower seeds this past weekend, we're down to just ✌️ teams.
The 2024 NLL Finals start Friday, May 17 when the Albany FireWolves host Game 1 against the defending champion Buffalo Bandits.
How the playoffs have played out: https://t.co/BDGOFQdVbB pic.twitter.com/Lc3AOCKm2R
NLL Finals Schedule
Game 1: Friday, May 17, 2024 (7pm ET)
Location: MVP Arena (Albany, NY)
Television: TSN
Streaming: TSN+, ESPN+
Tickets: Ticketmaster.com
Game 2: Saturday, May 18, 2024 (7:30pm ET)
Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, NY)
Television: TSN
Streaming: TSN+, ESPN+
Tickets: Ticketmaster.com
*Game 3: Saturday, May 25, 2024 (5pm ET)
Location: MVP Arena (Albany, NY)
Television: TSN, ESPN 2
Streaming: TSN+, ESPN+
Tickets: Ticketmaster.com
*If necessary
Albany FireWolves
Why they’ll win
Because although it doesn’t feel like it, the FireWolves are the higher-seeded side with home floor advantage.
Because over the past two seasons, Albany is 3-1 against Buffalo, a record against the Bandits that blows most of the rest of the league away. Below, see the combined regular season + playoff record of every NLL team versus Buffalo over the past two years (ranked by W%)…
Team, 2023-2024 Record vs. Bandits (W%)
Vancouver, 1-0 (1.000)
Panther City, 1-0 (1.000)
Albany, 3-1 (.750)
Colorado, 2-4 (.333)
New York, 1-2 (.333)
Georgia, 1-3 (.250)
Halifax, 1-3 (.250)
Rochester, 1-4 (.200)
Toronto, 1-8 (.111)
Saskatchewan, 0-1 (.000)
Calgary, 0-1 (.000)
Las Vegas, 0-1 (.000)
San Diego, 0-2 (.000)
Philadelphia, 0-3 (.000)
Because as this year’s youngest team and likely the youngest team to ever make the NLL Finals, they don’t know and likely don’t care that history says they shouldn’t still be playing. “Sometimes a young team doesn’t know what they don’t know and ends up not being nervous and playing loose,” Georgia Swarm Head Coach Ed Comeau told the voice of the Bandits John Gurtler earlier this week. NLLStats.com has complete rosters with accurate bio details going back to 2014 (prior to that, teams missed submitting a lot of info, including many DOBs). This year’s Albany roster has an average age of 25.92. The only NLL Finalist over the past decade that comes close to the FireWolves’ DOBs are the 2015 Edmonton Rush (26.16), who also won the Cup that year. Unlike 2024’s FireWolves, they weren’t that season’s youngest squad.
Because goalie Doug Jamieson might be playing in his first NLL Finals, but is no stranger to stealing the show and taking titles. Jamieson co-led the Six Nations Chiefs to a Mann Cup (Canadian Senior A) last summer, easily leading the series in GAA (7.71), save percentage (.856) and wins (3). He’s a 3x Minto Cup winner too (Canadian Junior A). Jamieson even scored on Buffalo earlier this year - one of only three goalies to get a goal in 2024.
Because in their two wins over Buffalo this year, Albany has done better in the transition game, an area that will be critical in this series. The FireWolves’ own-end point production in their two 2024 regular season wins over the Bandits: 13. And Buffalo: 9. FireWolves defensem*n also have seven goals so far during the playoffs to the Bandits’ three.
— The Lax Mag (@TheLaxMag) May 2, 2024A total of 68 rookies played in the NLL this year, although only 9 got into every game during the regular season.
We examine which teams relied on rookies the most this season, plus reveal who our player rankings math picked as 2024's Rookie of the Year: https://t.co/s0YxBd2Otp pic.twitter.com/Jjw3UemO51
Because rookie Tye Kurtz is one of only two players to score a hat-trick against the Bandits over the past two regular seasons, and already owns a point total in the playoffs that has him third behind only fellow rook teammate Alex Simmons and Buffalo’s Josh Byrne. They’re young, but they’re good.
Because after owning a piss poor power-play efficiency during the regular season and then going 0/8 against Halifax to open the playoffs, Albany’s PP looked sharper in their series sweep of San Diego, Austin Staats and Co. giving the FireWolves plenty of PP practice before the NLL Finals. Albany leads the playoffs with 8PPGs.
Why they won’t
Because even though they resparked their season after a worrisome 0-5 run near the end of the year, teams that lose that much late almost never win the Cup. Below are how Cup winners over the past 20 seasons have fared over the last month of the regular season. Only three teams with a record under .500 flipped the script enough to secure the title. The FireWolves were 1-3 over their last 30 days of the regular season.
Season: Team, Last Month (Full Season)
2023: Buffalo Bandits, 3-1 (14-4)
2022: Colorado Mammoth, 3-2 (10-8)
2019: Calgary Roughnecks, 4-1 (10-8)
2018: Saskatchewan Rush, 3-2 (14-4)
2017: Georgia Swarm, 5-1 (13-5)
2016: Saskatchewan Rush, 4-2 (13-5)
2015: Edmonton Rush, 6-1 (13-5)
2014: Rochester Knighthawks, 5-1 (14-4)
2013: Rochester Knighthawks, 4-2 (8-8)
2012: Rochester Knighthawks, 2-3 (7-9)
2011: Toronto Rock, 1-4 (10-6)
2010: Washington Stealth, 4-2 (11-5)
2009: Calgary Roughnecks, 5-2 (12-4)
2008: Buffalo Bandits, 3-1 (10-6)
2007: Rochester Knighthawks, 6-0 (14-2)
2006: Colorado Mammoth, 5-1 (10-6)
2005: Toronto Rock, 6-1 (12-4)
2004: Calgary Roughnecks, 4-2 (10-6)
2003: Toronto Rock, 1-2 (11-5)
2002: Toronto Rock, 4-3 (11-5)
Because even though they beat Buffalo twice during the regular season, they were relatively high-scoring games against a Bandits squad who was playing nowhere near as well as they are now. Matt Vinc allowed 17 in the first one (tied for the most goals the goalie GOAT has given up in one game), and then was MIA due to injury for the second. Neither of those things will be happening over the next handful of days.
Because even though we included their age as a reason why they might win, their youth and lack of NLL Finals experience (sure, some have played in big games, but these are the sport’s biggest games) is a lot to overcome, especially against a team that’s been here the last four postseasons and seem to have figured out the Cup-winning formula. Although almost impossible to confirm due to poor league roster-keeping in the past, It appears Albany is the youngest team in history to get this far.
Because even though they have home-floor advantage with Game 1 and a potential Game 3 happening at MVP Arena, booming Banditland travels and shows up in full force. Except to see a sh*t ton of orange in the stands for Game 1.
Because history is not on their side. Past their youthful lineup and crappy regular season conclusion, the last and only other time the NLL Finals were played in Albany, the home team blew it. Like the FireWolves, the 2002 Albany Attack were the higher seed, obviously had home-floor advantage, had the best regular season turnaround in league history (the FireWolves registered the second highest this year), were led offensively by a 25-year-old superstar in the making (Josh Sanderson then, Alex Simmons now) and seemed destined to rewrite history by beating Cup regulars the Toronto Rock. They lost, missed the playoffs the following year, and then relocated to San Jose a season after that.
Buffalo Bandits
Why they’ll win
Because since their regular season loss in Vancouver on March 1, the Bandits have been the most dominant team in the league, currently cruising (and often crushing the opposition) on an 9-1 run and playing by far their best lacrosse of the year. Unlike Albany’s last month of the regular season (see why Albany won’t win above), Buffalo’s March and April reads like the trailer to a Cup-winning success story, again.
Because even though the Bandits are the lower seed and were in the same spot in the semifinals versus first place Toronto, after losing three straight Cup Finals before last year’s championship campaign, they’ve figured out playing your best now is all that matters in this league.
Because even though he posted his saddest stats since coming to Buffalo and struggled at times during the regular season, Matt Vinc is back to playing out-of-his-mind lacrosse when it matters most and right now owns the best backstopper stats across the board during the playoffs. Yes, even better than Doug Jamieson.
— The Lax Mag (@TheLaxMag) May 7, 2024
Because Josh Byrne and Dhane Smith might be the two best lacrosse players on the planet right now, and have secondary scoring support behind them that has been - just like last year - a massive difference maker.
Because after we crowned Byrne this year’s most clutch goal getter during the regular season, he’s giving a repeat performance during the playoffs. The player we ranked #1 in our Clutch Kings countdown has now appeared in the NLL Finals in each of the last three seasons. Coincidence? No.
Because the Bandits are blocking their asses off and making it almost impossible to get consistent good looks on Vinc. Of the postseason’s seven highest shot blockers, five play for Buffalo: Steve Priolo (8), Paul Dawson (7), Adam Bomberry (4), Nick Weiss (4) and rookie Cam Wyers (4). Over three games each, the Bandits have 33 blocked shots to the FireWolves much, much, much fewer 19.
Because whether they’re playing at MVP or KeyBank, they’ll likely have more fans in the house than their opponent.
Because for the second straight year they’ve dealt with considerable injury-related issues during the regular season (last year up front, this year in their own end), only to overcome that adversity and look even better than before.
Because Vinc is a 4x NLL Cup champ, playing a pivotal role in every one of those wins, yet has never been named Finals MVP. Since Year 1 in 1987, the league has awarded the Finals MVP honour to a goalie eleven times, but never to Vinc, who has been voted the regular season’s GOTY a record 8x. Even though his mantel is spilling over with decades worth of success, there’s seemingly still spots saved for at least two more trophies.
Why they won’t
Because over the last two seasons, the FireWolves, even during their miserable 2023 campaign, have given them issues to the tune of a 1-3 record for Buffalo (more on that why Albany will win way above).
Because even though the addition of Connor Farrell at the FO dot has given them a serious surge of confidence, he’ll have his hands full with Albany’s Joe Nardella, who was one of only three players this year to win over 300 draws during the regular season (Jake Withers and Trevor Baptiste were the other two). In fact, although Farrell and Nardella have yet to face one another in the NLL, Nardella has a significantly higher W% against teams the two have both battled this year: Calgary, Colorado, Georgia, Las Vegas, Panther City, Philadelphia, Saskatchewan, and Toronto. In games against those teams, Farrell went 52.7% at the dot. Nardella? 69.8%, which is about two percentage points higher than his regular season average.
Because they’re up against this year’s Coach of the Year in Glenn Clark, who has settled his team down after their late-season slip and has them playing as good if not better than during that early-season streak of success. Clark and FireWolves Assistant Coach Darryl Gibson are also 1-0 in NLL Finals taking place in Albany, the dynamic defensive duo playing for Toronto during that previously mentioned 2002 Cup against the Attack (more on that in why Albany won’t win, again, way above). In fact, it was Clark, Gibson and the rest of the Rock’s suddenly high-scoring defensive unit that were the difference makers in Toronto’s narrow 13-12 win (8 goals were scored by defensem*n). This year’s FireWolves share many similarities with those Toronto teams of the late 90s and early 00s, and Clark clearly crafted his squad with the same Cup-winning success in mind. He learned from the best, but so did Bandits Head Coach John Tavares…
Paul Tutka
